Fourth Down Data
#9Kentucky7-1 · SEC@#16Tennessee6-2 · SEC
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Sat, Nov 7, 6:15 PM ET· Neyland Stadium· Tennessee -5.5 · O/U 49.5
Rest 14d / 14dTravel 146 mi / 0 miForecast: 57°F · wind 4 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Tennessee -5.5 · O/U 49.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Kentucky as road underdog
2026 overall: 6-1 ATS (7 games) · 5-2 O/U (7 games)
2026 as road underdog: 3-0 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 1-4 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 14-8 ATS (22 games) · 10-12 O/U (22 games)
Tennessee as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-4 ATS (8 games) · 2-6 O/U (8 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 0-3 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 2-5 ATS (7 games) · 5-2 O/U (7 games)
Since 2020: 19-17 ATS (36 games) · 19-17 O/U (36 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalTennessee · 6 of 9
386.4
Yards / game
394.5
2.74
Points / drive
2.31
3.8
TDs / game
3.8
33.7
3rd-down %
37.0
65.8
RZ TD %
70.4
1.6
Turnover margin
0.4
2.6
Sacks / game
4.4
5.4
TFL / game
8.3
15.1
Havoc / game
18.1
45.7 / 54.3
Pass / Rush split
37.0 / 63.0
2026 · Situational matchup
When Kentucky has the ball
Kentucky's early-down offense ranks 13th of 138. Tennessee's early-down defense ranks 3rd of 138.
Kentucky's passing-down offense ranks 65th of 138. Tennessee's passing-down defense ranks 12th of 138.
Kentucky's third-down offense ranks 134th of 138. Tennessee's third-down defense ranks 52nd of 138.
Kentucky's red-zone offense ranks 56th of 138. Tennessee's red-zone defense ranks 27th of 138.
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee's early-down offense ranks 84th of 138. Kentucky's early-down defense ranks 29th of 138.
Tennessee's passing-down offense ranks 129th of 138. Kentucky's passing-down defense ranks 126th of 138.
Tennessee's third-down offense ranks 106th of 138. Kentucky's third-down defense ranks 118th of 138.
Tennessee's red-zone offense ranks 28th of 138. Kentucky's red-zone defense ranks 89th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.031 last 3 vs 0.059 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.052 last 3 vs -0.033 season)
Offense formabout the same(-0.037 last 3 vs 0.004 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.255 last 3 vs -0.264 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKenny Minchey — 1755 yd, 14 TD
RushingCJ Baxter — 487 yd, 8 TD
ReceivingKenny Darby — 507 yd, 3 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingGeorge MacIntyre — 728 yd, 2 TD
RushingDeSean Bishop — 957 yd, 11 TD
ReceivingMike Matthews — 528 yd, 3 TD