Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM ET· Amon G. Carter Stadium· TCU -9.5 · O/U 46.5
Rest 7d / 8dTravel 451 mi / 0 miForecast: 67°F · wind 12 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
TCU -9.5 · O/U 46.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Kansas State as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-5-1 ATS (9 games) · 6-3 O/U (9 games)
2026 as road underdog: 0-0-1 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 3-0 ATS (3 games) · 3-0 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 12-6-1 ATS (19 games) · 12-7 O/U (19 games)
TCU as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-4-1 ATS (9 games) · 2-7 O/U (9 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-2-1 ATS (5 games) · 1-4 O/U (5 games)
Last season (2025): 4-2 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 17-16-1 ATS (34 games) · 15-19 O/U (34 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalKansas State · 8 of 9
415.6
Yards / game
378.3
2.29
Points / drive
1.78
3.7
TDs / game
2.7
51.9
3rd-down %
43.4
61.9
RZ TD %
58.8
-0.2
Turnover margin
-0.3
2.1
Sacks / game
2.1
6.3
TFL / game
4.9
13.6
Havoc / game
11.7
46.6 / 53.4
Pass / Rush split
52.1 / 47.9
2026 · Situational matchup
When Kansas State has the ball
Kansas State's early-down offense ranks 77th of 138. TCU's early-down defense ranks 49th of 138.
Kansas State's passing-down offense ranks 24th of 138. TCU's passing-down defense ranks 36th of 138.
Kansas State's third-down offense ranks 15th of 138. TCU's third-down defense ranks 4th of 138.
Kansas State's red-zone offense ranks 61st of 138. TCU's red-zone defense ranks 10th of 138.
When TCU has the ball
TCU's early-down offense ranks 118th of 138. Kansas State's early-down defense ranks 79th of 138.
TCU's passing-down offense ranks 112th of 138. Kansas State's passing-down defense ranks 121st of 138.
TCU's third-down offense ranks 31st of 138. Kansas State's third-down defense ranks 109th of 138.
TCU's red-zone offense ranks 78th of 138. Kansas State's red-zone defense ranks 106th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.194 last 3 vs -0.013 season (-0.181)
▼Defense form0.115 last 3 vs -0.033 season (+0.148)
Offense formabout the same(-0.003 last 3 vs -0.053 season)
▼Defense form-0.050 last 3 vs -0.106 season (+0.057)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAvery Johnson — 1301 yd, 10 TD
RushingRodney Fields Jr. — 574 yd, 6 TD
ReceivingJaron Tibbs — 421 yd, 4 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJaden Craig — 2439 yd, 12 TD
RushingJeremy Payne — 429 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingKari Ashley — 655 yd, 4 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Kansas State offense
77thof 138-0.006402 plays
vs
TCU defense · allowed
49thof 138-0.049Kansas State defense · allowed
79thof 138-0.008vs
TCU offense
118thof 138-0.102436 plays
Passing downs
Kansas State offense
24thof 1380.200205 plays
vs
TCU defense · allowed
36thof 138-0.094218 plays
Kansas State defense · allowed
121stof 1380.176214 plays
vs
TCU offense
112thof 138-0.113214 plays
Third down
Kansas State offense
15thof 1380.355133 plays
vs
TCU defense · allowed
4thof 138-0.352133 plays
Kansas State defense · allowed
109thof 1380.157115 plays
vs
TCU offense
31stof 1380.208123 plays
Red zone
Kansas State offense
61stof 1380.028116 plays
vs
TCU defense · allowed
10thof 138-0.35878 plays
Kansas State defense · allowed
106thof 1380.12573 plays
vs
TCU offense
78thof 138-0.01083 plays
Field advancement
Kansas State offense
47thof 13850.6%vs
TCU defense · allowed
21stof 13836.4%Kansas State defense · allowed
46thof 13840.5%vs
TCU offense
57thof 13848.9%Away
Home
Kansas State Offense vs TCU DefenseTCU · 9 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.03#80
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#100.38
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.020#63
522 plays
EPA/Play
#21-0.121
allowed · 553 plays
-0.077#90
248 plays
EPA/Pass
#23-0.152
allowed · 259 plays
0.109#31
274 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#31-0.093
allowed · 294 plays
47.1%#55
522 plays
Success Rate
#739.6%
allowed · 553 plays
42.7%#91
Pass Success Rate
#3139.8%
allowed
51.1%#31
Rush Success Rate
#638.9%
allowed
50.6%#47
Available Yards %
#2136.4%
allowed
70.7#79
Net Field Position
#1973.3
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
-0.006#77
402 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#49-0.049
allowed
6.6#41
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#547.2
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Kansas State Defense vs TCU OffenseKansas State · 8 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.09#88
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#109-0.21
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.059#103
allowed · 456 plays
EPA/Play
#99-0.059
572 plays
0.003#81
allowed · 186 plays
EPA/Pass
#490.052
300 plays
0.097#110
allowed · 270 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#133-0.181
272 plays
46.5%#82
allowed · 456 plays
Success Rate
#12442.7%
572 plays
41.9%#51
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#5446.0%
46.7%#65
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#13539.0%
40.5%#46
allowed
Available Yards %
#5748.9%
71.1#72
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#6970.4
-0.008#79
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#118-0.102
436 plays
8.0#13
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#1277.8
2026 · Situational EPAEven · 3-3-0
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
0.025
532 plays
Non-garbage · Off
-0.059
572 plays
0.070
474 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
-0.121
553 plays
0.028
116 plays
Red Zone · Off
-0.010
83 plays
0.125
73 plays
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
-0.358
78 plays
0.355
133 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.208
123 plays
0.157
115 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
-0.352
133 plays