Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET· Arizona Stadium· Arizona -10.5 · O/U 50.5
Rest 15d / 14dTravel 1,166 mi / 0 miForecast: 72°F · wind 8 mph · Clear
Market context
Arizona -10.5 · O/U 50.5
opened Arizona -10, now Arizona -10.5 · total opened 51.5, now 50.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Iowa State as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-3-1 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 11-6 ATS (17 games) · 7-10 O/U (17 games)
Arizona as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-4 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 4-1 ATS (5 games) · 0-5 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 9-11 ATS (20 games) · 6-14 O/U (20 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalArizona · 8 of 9
359.7
Yards / game
456.5
2.29
Points / drive
2.98
3.3
TDs / game
4.3
31.0
3rd-down %
55.6
70.6
RZ TD %
73.9
0.5
Turnover margin
-0.5
1.5
Sacks / game
3.2
5.2
TFL / game
7.5
10.3
Havoc / game
14.7
41.1 / 58.9
Pass / Rush split
50.6 / 49.4
2026 · Situational matchup
When Iowa State has the ball
Iowa State's early-down offense ranks 39th of 138. Arizona's early-down defense ranks 9th of 138.
Iowa State's passing-down offense ranks 99th of 138. Arizona's passing-down defense ranks 107th of 138.
Iowa State's third-down offense ranks 112th of 138. Arizona's third-down defense ranks 130th of 138.
Iowa State's red-zone offense ranks 16th of 138. Arizona's red-zone defense ranks 12th of 138.
When Arizona has the ball
Arizona's early-down offense ranks 19th of 138. Iowa State's early-down defense ranks 116th of 138.
Arizona's passing-down offense ranks 3rd of 138. Iowa State's passing-down defense ranks 73rd of 138.
Arizona's third-down offense ranks 6th of 138. Iowa State's third-down defense ranks 68th of 138.
Arizona's red-zone offense ranks 42nd of 138. Iowa State's red-zone defense ranks 102nd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.029 last 3 vs 0.033 season)
▼Defense form0.224 last 3 vs -0.006 season (+0.230)
Offense formabout the same(0.224 last 3 vs 0.196 season)
▲Defense form-0.163 last 3 vs -0.091 season (-0.072)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJaylen Raynor — 1001 yd, 7 TD
RushingAiden Flora — 680 yd, 6 TD
ReceivingDominic Overby — 212 yd, 1 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingNoah Fifita — 1756 yd, 16 TD
RushingKedrick Reescano — 262 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingIsaiah Mizell — 359 yd, 4 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Iowa State offense
39thof 1380.080263 plays
vs
Arizona defense · allowed
9thof 138-0.174Iowa State defense · allowed
116thof 1380.067vs
Arizona offense
19thof 1380.133267 plays
Passing downs
Iowa State offense
99thof 138-0.065135 plays
vs
Arizona defense · allowed
107thof 1380.129163 plays
Iowa State defense · allowed
73rdof 138-0.008122 plays
vs
Arizona offense
3rdof 1380.415135 plays
Third down
Iowa State offense
112thof 138-0.15371 plays
vs
Arizona defense · allowed
130thof 1380.31491 plays
Iowa State defense · allowed
68thof 1380.01676 plays
vs
Arizona offense
6thof 1380.47974 plays
Red zone
Iowa State offense
16thof 1380.26943 plays · small sample
vs
Arizona defense · allowed
12thof 138-0.31952 plays · small sample
Iowa State defense · allowed
102ndof 1380.08842 plays · small sample
vs
Arizona offense
42ndof 1380.09059 plays · small sample
Field advancement
Iowa State offense
106thof 13843.2%vs
Arizona defense · allowed
58thof 13842.2%Iowa State defense · allowed
47thof 13839.8%vs
Arizona offense
29thof 13854.5%Away
Home
Iowa State Offense vs Arizona DefenseArizona · 11 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.10#94
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#250.22
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.032#69
335 plays
EPA/Play
#37-0.083
allowed · 350 plays
-0.051#93
146 plays
EPA/Pass
#63-0.054
allowed · 167 plays
0.097#39
189 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#32-0.110
allowed · 183 plays
43.3%#119
335 plays
Success Rate
#939.4%
allowed · 350 plays
40.4%#111
Pass Success Rate
#1437.4%
allowed
45.5%#107
Rush Success Rate
#2542.1%
allowed
43.2%#106
Available Yards %
#5842.2%
allowed
72.4#108
Net Field Position
#5871.8
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
0.080#39
263 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#9-0.174
allowed
7.8#121
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#188.0
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Iowa State Defense vs Arizona OffenseArizona · 10 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.07#54
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#290.20
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.029#88
allowed · 325 plays
EPA/Play
#150.186
330 plays
0.042#88
allowed · 145 plays
EPA/Pass
#110.268
170 plays
0.019#82
allowed · 180 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#370.098
160 plays
44.9%#60
allowed · 325 plays
Success Rate
#2650.6%
330 plays
40.9%#45
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#1952.4%
47.6%#83
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#6648.8%
39.8%#47
allowed
Available Yards %
#2954.5%
70.2#99
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#8571.3
0.067#116
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#190.133
267 plays
7.9#19
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#266.3
2026 · Situational EPAArizona · 4 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
0.019
328 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.204
324 plays
0.029
325 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
-0.068
346 plays
0.269
43 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
0.090
59 plays · small sample
0.088
42 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
-0.319
52 plays · small sample
-0.153
71 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.479
74 plays
0.016
76 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.314
91 plays