Fourth Down Data
Florida State3-3 · ACC@#4Miami5-0 · ACC
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Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET· Hard Rock Stadium· Miami -21 · O/U 55.5
Rest 8d / 14dTravel 396 mi / 0 miForecast: 79°F · wind 11 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Market context
Miami -21 · O/U 55.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Florida State as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-3-1 ATS (6 games) · 2-4 O/U (6 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 2-0 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 6-12-1 ATS (19 games) · 9-9-1 O/U (19 games)
Miami as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-1 ATS (5 games) · 4-1 O/U (5 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 2-0 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 4-3 ATS (7 games) · 3-4 O/U (7 games)
Since 2020: 15-19 ATS (34 games) · 17-17 O/U (34 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalMiami · 6 of 9
409.5
Yards / game
554.8
2.93
Points / drive
4.25
4.0
TDs / game
6.4
42.3
3rd-down %
51.1
79.2
RZ TD %
79.2
-0.5
Turnover margin
0.8
3.0
Sacks / game
3.2
6.7
TFL / game
5.6
13.5
Havoc / game
12.8
40.2 / 59.8
Pass / Rush split
47.0 / 53.0
2026 · Situational matchup
When Florida State has the ball
Florida State's early-down offense ranks 50th of 138. Miami's early-down defense ranks 23rd of 138.
Florida State's passing-down offense ranks 14th of 138. Miami's passing-down defense ranks 7th of 138.
Florida State's third-down offense ranks 19th of 138. Miami's third-down defense ranks 12th of 138.
Florida State's red-zone offense ranks 17th of 138. Miami's red-zone defense ranks 2nd of 138.
When Miami has the ball
Miami's early-down offense ranks 1st of 138. Florida State's early-down defense ranks 111th of 138.
Miami's passing-down offense ranks 51st of 138. Florida State's passing-down defense ranks 90th of 138.
Miami's third-down offense ranks 48th of 138. Florida State's third-down defense ranks 138th of 138.
Miami's red-zone offense ranks 35th of 138. Florida State's red-zone defense ranks 42nd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.155 last 3 vs 0.139 season)
▲Defense form0.075 last 3 vs 0.156 season (-0.081)
▼Offense form0.225 last 3 vs 0.378 season (-0.153)
Defense formabout the same(-0.247 last 3 vs -0.283 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAshton Daniels — 1320 yd, 8 TD
RushingOusmane Kromah — 565 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingJayvan Boggs — 299 yd, 1 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingDarian Mensah — 1438 yd, 15 TD
RushingMark Fletcher, Jr. — 307 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingMalachi Toney — 604 yd, 6 TD