Fourth Down Data
Florida State3-2 · ACC@Louisville2-3 · ACC
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Fri, Oct 9, 7:00 PM ET· Cardinal Stadium· Louisville -6.5 · O/U 58
Rest 6d / 6dTravel 543 mi / 0 miForecast: 69°F · wind 5 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Louisville -6.5 · O/U 58
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Florida State as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-2-1 ATS (5 games) · 1-4 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 6-11-1 ATS (18 games) · 8-9-1 O/U (18 games)
Louisville as home favorite
2026 overall: 3-2 ATS (5 games) · 4-1 O/U (5 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 1-8 ATS (9 games) · 5-4 O/U (9 games)
Since 2020: 22-15 ATS (37 games) · 17-20 O/U (37 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalFlorida State · 5 of 9
419.0
Yards / game
486.0
3.10
Points / drive
2.97
4.2
TDs / game
5.0
42.6
3rd-down %
45.6
81.0
RZ TD %
66.7
-0.4
Turnover margin
0.8
3.4
Sacks / game
1.6
7.2
TFL / game
3.6
15.0
Havoc / game
11.2
37.9 / 62.1
Pass / Rush split
45.2 / 54.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Florida State has the ball
Florida State's early-down offense ranks 43rd of 138. Louisville's early-down defense ranks 134th of 138.
Florida State's passing-down offense ranks 11th of 138. Louisville's passing-down defense ranks 123rd of 138.
Florida State's third-down offense ranks 12th of 138. Louisville's third-down defense ranks 39th of 138.
Florida State's red-zone offense ranks 25th of 138. Louisville's red-zone defense ranks 46th of 138.
When Louisville has the ball
Louisville's early-down offense ranks 17th of 138. Florida State's early-down defense ranks 60th of 138.
Louisville's passing-down offense ranks 10th of 138. Florida State's passing-down defense ranks 84th of 138.
Louisville's third-down offense ranks 18th of 138. Florida State's third-down defense ranks 138th of 138.
Louisville's red-zone offense ranks 94th of 138. Florida State's red-zone defense ranks 29th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.209 last 3 vs 0.152 season (+0.057)
Defense formabout the same(0.083 last 3 vs 0.104 season)
Offense formabout the same(0.173 last 3 vs 0.192 season)
Defense formabout the same(0.121 last 3 vs 0.094 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAshton Daniels — 1111 yd, 6 TD
RushingOusmane Kromah — 477 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingDuce Robinson — 280 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLincoln Kienholz — 1394 yd, 9 TD
RushingKeyjuan Brown — 367 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingTre Richardson — 445 yd, 2 TD