Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET· TDECU Stadium· Houston -12 · O/U 51.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 857 mi / 0 miForecast: 83°F · wind 8 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Houston -12 · O/U 51.5
opened Houston -11, now Houston -12
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
UCF as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-4 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 7-12 ATS (19 games) · 11-8 O/U (19 games)
Houston as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 4-0 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 2-0 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 11-13-1 ATS (25 games) · 14-10-1 O/U (25 games)
2026 · TraditionalHouston · 6 of 9
355.5
Yards / game
505.8
2.41
Points / drive
3.94
4.5
TDs / game
6.0
34.9
3rd-down %
71.1
73.3
RZ TD %
77.3
1.3
Turnover margin
0.8
2.5
Sacks / game
2.0
6.5
TFL / game
4.8
14.0
Havoc / game
14.3
40.4 / 59.6
Pass / Rush split
40.1 / 59.9
2026 · Situational matchup
When UCF has the ball
UCF's early-down offense ranks 55th of 138. Houston's early-down defense ranks 94th of 138.
UCF's passing-down offense ranks 64th of 138. Houston's passing-down defense ranks 62nd of 138.
UCF's third-down offense ranks 114th of 138. Houston's third-down defense ranks 99th of 138.
UCF's red-zone offense ranks 43rd of 138. Houston's red-zone defense ranks 137th of 138.
When Houston has the ball
Houston's early-down offense ranks 29th of 138. UCF's early-down defense ranks 19th of 138.
Houston's passing-down offense ranks 6th of 138. UCF's passing-down defense ranks 52nd of 138.
Houston's third-down offense ranks 2nd of 138. UCF's third-down defense ranks 51st of 138.
Houston's red-zone offense ranks 44th of 138. UCF's red-zone defense ranks 86th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
UCF offense
55thof 1380.042145 plays
vs
Houston defense · allowed
94thof 1380.025UCF defense · allowed
19thof 138-0.166vs
Houston offense
29thof 1380.136193 plays
Passing downs
UCF offense
64thof 1380.07475 plays
vs
Houston defense · allowed
62ndof 138-0.03086 plays
UCF defense · allowed
52ndof 138-0.071115 plays
vs
Houston offense
6thof 1380.37970 plays
Third down
UCF offense
114thof 138-0.15843 plays · small sample
vs
Houston defense · allowed
99thof 1380.17151 plays · small sample
UCF defense · allowed
51stof 138-0.09366 plays
vs
Houston offense
2ndof 1380.73345 plays · small sample
Red zone
UCF offense
43rdof 1380.15341 plays · small sample
vs
Houston defense · allowed
137thof 1380.65419 plays · small sample
UCF defense · allowed
86thof 1380.04732 plays · small sample
vs
Houston offense
44thof 1380.15359 plays · small sample
Field advancement
UCF offense
87thof 13846.8%vs
Houston defense · allowed
56thof 13838.5%UCF defense · allowed
31stof 13833.5%vs
Houston offense
1stof 13873.5%UCF Offense vs Houston DefenseHouston · 6 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.02#75
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#640.02
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.069#109
189 plays
EPA/Play
#1060.064
allowed · 218 plays
-0.173#115
80 plays
EPA/Pass
#1270.234
allowed · 127 plays
0.008#80
109 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#29-0.173
allowed · 91 plays
46.0%#87
189 plays
Success Rate
#10547.7%
allowed · 218 plays
41.3%#100
Pass Success Rate
#13251.1%
allowed
49.5%#58
Rush Success Rate
#1238.1%
allowed
46.8%#87
Available Yards %
#5638.5%
allowed
63.0#5
Net Field Position
#976.1
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
0.042#55
145 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#940.025
allowed
7.7#117
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#607.4
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
UCF Defense vs Houston OffenseHouston · 9 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.23#13
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#50.41
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.116#34
allowed · 246 plays
EPA/Play
#70.245
235 plays
-0.060#61
allowed · 127 plays
EPA/Pass
#90.363
103 plays
-0.175#28
allowed · 119 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#280.153
132 plays
40.2%#26
allowed · 246 plays
Success Rate
#558.7%
235 plays
39.9%#49
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#859.2%
38.6%#16
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#658.3%
33.5%#31
allowed
Available Yards %
#173.5%
72.5#55
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#1165.3
-0.166#19
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#290.136
193 plays
8.0#32
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#15.2
2026 · Situational EPAUCF · 4 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
-0.086
197 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.251
243 plays
-0.133
257 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
0.017
218 plays
0.153
41 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
0.153
59 plays · small sample
0.047
32 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
0.654
19 plays · small sample
-0.158
43 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Off
0.733
45 plays · small sample
-0.093
66 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.171
51 plays · small sample