Fourth Down Data
California2-2 · ACC@UNLV2-2 · Mountain West
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Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET· Allegiant Stadium· UNLV -2.5 · O/U 53
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 8d / 7dTravel 409 mi / 0 mi
Market context
UNLV -2.5 · O/U 53
opened UNLV -2, now UNLV -2.5 · total opened 53.5, now 53
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
California as road underdog
2026 overall: 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 11-12 ATS (23 games) · 10-13 O/U (23 games)
UNLV as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 0-4 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-4 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 11-10 ATS (21 games) · 12-8-1 O/U (21 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalUNLV · 6 of 9
379.0
Yards / game
404.5
1.88
Points / drive
1.88
2.8
TDs / game
2.5
37.0
3rd-down %
38.3
61.5
RZ TD %
50.0
0.0
Turnover margin
0.3
1.8
Sacks / game
2.5
3.5
TFL / game
4.0
10.8
Havoc / game
13.8
56.0 / 44.0
Pass / Rush split
42.9 / 57.1
2026 · Situational matchup
When California has the ball
California's early-down offense ranks 74th of 138. UNLV's early-down defense ranks 79th of 138.
California's passing-down offense ranks 98th of 138. UNLV's passing-down defense ranks 31st of 138.
California's third-down offense ranks 75th of 138. UNLV's third-down defense ranks 54th of 138.
California's red-zone offense ranks 94th of 138. UNLV's red-zone defense ranks 34th of 138.
When UNLV has the ball
UNLV's early-down offense ranks 86th of 138. California's early-down defense ranks 56th of 138.
UNLV's passing-down offense ranks 112th of 138. California's passing-down defense ranks 49th of 138.
UNLV's third-down offense ranks 84th of 138. California's third-down defense ranks 121st of 138.
UNLV's red-zone offense ranks 124th of 138. California's red-zone defense ranks 9th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.019 last 3 vs 0.002 season)
▲Defense form-0.328 last 3 vs -0.158 season (-0.169)
Offense formabout the same(-0.008 last 3 vs -0.011 season)
▲Defense form-0.109 last 3 vs -0.049 season (-0.059)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele — 985 yd, 7 TD
RushingAdam Mohammed — 336 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingIan Strong — 250 yd, 0 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJackson Arnold — 891 yd, 5 TD
RushingJai'Den Thomas — 337 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingTaz Reddicks — 236 yd, 1 TD