Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET· Scheumann Stadium· Ball State -14.5 · O/U 51
Rest — / 7dTravel — / 0 miForecast: 67°F · wind 4 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Ball State -14.5 · O/U 51
opened Ball State -11.5, now Ball State -14.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Sacramento State as road underdog
2026 overall: 1-5 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
2026 as road underdog: 0-3 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Since 2020: 4-4 ATS (8 games) · 5-3 O/U (8 games)
Ball State as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-3 ATS (7 games) · 6-1 O/U (7 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 8-6 ATS (14 games) · 5-8 O/U (13 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalBall State · 8 of 9
302.7
Yards / game
326.1
0.95
Points / drive
1.97
1.6
TDs / game
2.6
33.0
3rd-down %
30.7
29.4
RZ TD %
66.7
-1.4
Turnover margin
-0.3
1.1
Sacks / game
1.7
3.9
TFL / game
5.4
7.1
Havoc / game
11.0
53.3 / 46.7
Pass / Rush split
50.2 / 49.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Sacramento State has the ball
Sacramento State's early-down offense ranks 138th of 138. Ball State's early-down defense ranks 119th of 138.
Sacramento State's passing-down offense ranks 138th of 138. Ball State's passing-down defense ranks 89th of 138.
Sacramento State's third-down offense ranks 135th of 138. Ball State's third-down defense ranks 123rd of 138.
Sacramento State's red-zone offense ranks 137th of 138. Ball State's red-zone defense ranks 132nd of 138.
When Ball State has the ball
Ball State's early-down offense ranks 84th of 138. Sacramento State's early-down defense ranks 129th of 138.
Ball State's passing-down offense ranks 70th of 138. Sacramento State's passing-down defense ranks 83rd of 138.
Ball State's third-down offense ranks 124th of 138. Sacramento State's third-down defense ranks 78th of 138.
Ball State's red-zone offense ranks 23rd of 138. Sacramento State's red-zone defense ranks 121st of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.317 last 3 vs -0.333 season)
▼Defense form0.332 last 3 vs 0.100 season (+0.232)
Offense formabout the same(0.003 last 3 vs -0.010 season)
▼Defense form0.177 last 3 vs 0.125 season (+0.051)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJackson Sharman — 1070 yd, 6 TD
RushingIsaiah Ene — 246 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingMatt Coleman — 473 yd, 4 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKeldric Luster — 1066 yd, 7 TD
RushingTJ Horton — 392 yd, 7 TD
ReceivingDonovan Hamilton — 273 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Sacramento State offense
138thof 138-0.314213 plays
vs
Ball State defense · allowed
119thof 1380.076Sacramento State defense · allowed
129thof 1380.124vs
Ball State offense
84thof 138-0.013278 plays
Passing downs
Sacramento State offense
138thof 138-0.371150 plays
vs
Ball State defense · allowed
89thof 1380.061158 plays
Sacramento State defense · allowed
83rdof 1380.032142 plays
vs
Ball State offense
70thof 1380.019159 plays
Third down
Sacramento State offense
135thof 138-0.34997 plays
vs
Ball State defense · allowed
123rdof 1380.27192 plays
Sacramento State defense · allowed
78thof 1380.03979 plays
vs
Ball State offense
124thof 138-0.20788 plays
Red zone
Sacramento State offense
137thof 138-0.62443 plays · small sample
vs
Ball State defense · allowed
132ndof 1380.34170 plays
Sacramento State defense · allowed
121stof 1380.24656 plays · small sample
vs
Ball State offense
23rdof 1380.20643 plays · small sample
Field advancement
Sacramento State offense
126thof 13837.4%vs
Ball State defense · allowed
137thof 13859.1%Sacramento State defense · allowed
91stof 13846.3%vs
Ball State offense
123rdof 13838.6%Away
Home
Sacramento State Offense vs Ball State DefenseBall State · 6 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.49#136
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#133-0.37
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.312#138
287 plays
EPA/Play
#1230.117
allowed · 394 plays
-0.362#137
169 plays
EPA/Pass
#1230.187
allowed · 179 plays
-0.240#134
118 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#970.058
allowed · 215 plays
44.6%#99
287 plays
Success Rate
#13250.8%
allowed · 394 plays
42.6%#93
Pass Success Rate
#13451.5%
allowed
47.5%#85
Rush Success Rate
#12851.9%
allowed
37.4%#126
Available Yards %
#13759.1%
allowed
70.2#64
Net Field Position
#10070.2
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
-0.314#138
213 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#1190.076
allowed
7.3#100
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#817.0
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Sacramento State Defense vs Ball State OffenseBall State · 8 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.33#130
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#99-0.14
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.105#118
allowed · 302 plays
EPA/Play
#780.007
362 plays
0.137#112
allowed · 128 plays
EPA/Pass
#640.041
184 plays
0.081#110
allowed · 174 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#95-0.029
178 plays
49.7%#123
allowed · 302 plays
Success Rate
#8945.6%
362 plays
46.1%#106
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#9042.9%
48.0%#89
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#7148.3%
46.3%#91
allowed
Available Yards %
#12338.6%
72.3#46
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#13173.7
0.124#129
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#84-0.013
278 plays
6.6#111
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#1298.0
2026 · Situational EPAEven · 3-3-0
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
-0.317
299 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.004
359 plays
0.109
308 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
0.136
393 plays
-0.624
43 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
0.206
43 plays · small sample
0.246
56 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
0.341
70 plays
-0.349
97 plays
3rd Down · Off
-0.207
88 plays
0.039
79 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.271
92 plays