Fourth Down Data
Buffalo5-3 · Mid-American@Miami (OH)5-3 · Mid-American
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Tue, Nov 3, 8:00 PM ET· Fred C. Yager Stadium· Miami (OH) -6.5 · O/U 44.5
Rest 10d / 10dTravel 392 mi / 0 miForecast: 64°F · wind 12 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Miami (OH) -6.5 · O/U 44.5
total opened 45.5, now 44.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Buffalo as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-4-1 ATS (8 games) · 5-3 O/U (8 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 11-13 ATS (24 games) · 13-10-1 O/U (24 games)
Miami (OH) as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-4 ATS (8 games) · 6-2 O/U (8 games)
2026 as home favorite: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Last season (2025): 4-0 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 18-7 ATS (25 games) · 11-14 O/U (25 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalMiami (OH) · 6 of 9
330.3
Yards / game
358.1
1.74
Points / drive
2.36
2.5
TDs / game
2.9
38.6
3rd-down %
36.3
53.3
RZ TD %
57.7
-0.4
Turnover margin
0.1
1.5
Sacks / game
2.0
4.6
TFL / game
4.1
11.8
Havoc / game
11.0
42.1 / 57.9
Pass / Rush split
44.3 / 55.7
2026 · Situational matchup
When Buffalo has the ball
Buffalo's early-down offense ranks 114th of 138. Miami (OH)'s early-down defense ranks 50th of 138.
Buffalo's passing-down offense ranks 126th of 138. Miami (OH)'s passing-down defense ranks 127th of 138.
Buffalo's third-down offense ranks 116th of 138. Miami (OH)'s third-down defense ranks 120th of 138.
Buffalo's red-zone offense ranks 81st of 138. Miami (OH)'s red-zone defense ranks 135th of 138.
When Miami (OH) has the ball
Miami (OH)'s early-down offense ranks 38th of 138. Buffalo's early-down defense ranks 43rd of 138.
Miami (OH)'s passing-down offense ranks 105th of 138. Buffalo's passing-down defense ranks 37th of 138.
Miami (OH)'s third-down offense ranks 121st of 138. Buffalo's third-down defense ranks 82nd of 138.
Miami (OH)'s red-zone offense ranks 80th of 138. Buffalo's red-zone defense ranks 125th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.071 last 3 vs -0.101 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.089 last 3 vs -0.042 season)
▼Offense form-0.067 last 3 vs 0.074 season (-0.142)
▲Defense form-0.174 last 3 vs -0.063 season (-0.111)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJason Wright — 987 yd, 7 TD
RushingMessiah Burch — 845 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingChance Morrow — 480 yd, 6 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingDavid McComb — 1121 yd, 7 TD
RushingRodney Nelson — 391 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingMaleek Huggins — 431 yd, 1 TD