Fourth Down Data
Buffalo6-3 · Mid-American@Ball State3-6 · Mid-American
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Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET· Scheumann Stadium· Buffalo -2.5 · O/U 51.5
Rest 8d / 7dTravel 393 mi / 0 miForecast: 52°F · wind 8 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Buffalo -2.5 · O/U 51.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Buffalo as road favorite
2026 overall: 4-4-1 ATS (9 games) · 6-3 O/U (9 games)
2026 as road favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 2-0 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 7-5 ATS (12 games) · 6-5 O/U (11 games)
Ball State as home underdog
2026 overall: 6-3 ATS (9 games) · 7-1-1 O/U (9 games)
2026 as home underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 12-8 ATS (20 games) · 6-13-1 O/U (20 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalEven · 4-4-1
344.6
Yards / game
338.9
1.83
Points / drive
2.15
2.7
TDs / game
3.0
39.0
3rd-down %
35.1
54.1
RZ TD %
69.2
-0.6
Turnover margin
-0.1
1.9
Sacks / game
1.8
5.1
TFL / game
5.1
12.7
Havoc / game
10.8
44.0 / 56.0
Pass / Rush split
47.9 / 52.1
2026 · Situational matchup
When Buffalo has the ball
Buffalo's early-down offense ranks 100th of 138. Ball State's early-down defense ranks 118th of 138.
Buffalo's passing-down offense ranks 92nd of 138. Ball State's passing-down defense ranks 98th of 138.
Buffalo's third-down offense ranks 122nd of 138. Ball State's third-down defense ranks 93rd of 138.
Buffalo's red-zone offense ranks 89th of 138. Ball State's red-zone defense ranks 134th of 138.
When Ball State has the ball
Ball State's early-down offense ranks 73rd of 138. Buffalo's early-down defense ranks 51st of 138.
Ball State's passing-down offense ranks 64th of 138. Buffalo's passing-down defense ranks 31st of 138.
Ball State's third-down offense ranks 110th of 138. Buffalo's third-down defense ranks 59th of 138.
Ball State's red-zone offense ranks 25th of 138. Buffalo's red-zone defense ranks 130th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.006 last 3 vs -0.073 season (+0.079)
Defense formabout the same(-0.007 last 3 vs -0.037 season)
▲Offense form0.084 last 3 vs 0.008 season (+0.076)
▲Defense form0.004 last 3 vs 0.095 season (-0.091)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJason Wright — 1345 yd, 9 TD
RushingMessiah Burch — 901 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingChance Morrow — 679 yd, 8 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKeldric Luster — 1482 yd, 10 TD
RushingTJ Horton — 436 yd, 9 TD
ReceivingDonovan Hamilton — 354 yd, 1 TD