Fourth Down Data
Toledo3-1 · Mid-American@Ball State1-3 · Mid-American
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Sat, Oct 3, 2:00 PM ET· Scheumann Stadium· Toledo -19.5 · O/U 52
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 137 mi / 0 miForecast: 65°F · wind 9 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Toledo -19.5 · O/U 52
total opened 51.5, now 52
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Toledo as road favorite
2026 overall: 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 3-0 O/U (3 games)
2026 as road favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 1-4 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 12-15 ATS (27 games) · 10-16 O/U (26 games)
Ball State as home underdog
2026 overall: 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 11-8 ATS (19 games) · 5-13-1 O/U (19 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalToledo · 7 of 9
468.0
Yards / game
276.5
3.38
Points / drive
1.80
5.5
TDs / game
2.3
50.0
3rd-down %
25.5
87.5
RZ TD %
60.0
0.0
Turnover margin
0.3
2.3
Sacks / game
1.8
4.5
TFL / game
4.5
12.3
Havoc / game
9.5
47.5 / 52.5
Pass / Rush split
49.2 / 50.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Toledo has the ball
Toledo's early-down offense ranks 6th of 138. Ball State's early-down defense ranks 81st of 138.
Toledo's passing-down offense ranks 36th of 138. Ball State's passing-down defense ranks 111th of 138.
Toledo's third-down offense ranks 36th of 138. Ball State's third-down defense ranks 132nd of 138.
Toledo's red-zone offense ranks 2nd of 138. Ball State's red-zone defense ranks 133rd of 138.
When Ball State has the ball
Ball State's early-down offense ranks 105th of 138. Toledo's early-down defense ranks 22nd of 138.
Ball State's passing-down offense ranks 77th of 138. Toledo's passing-down defense ranks 48th of 138.
Ball State's third-down offense ranks 128th of 138. Toledo's third-down defense ranks 64th of 138.
Ball State's red-zone offense ranks 69th of 138. Toledo's red-zone defense ranks 100th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.142 last 3 vs 0.144 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.236 last 3 vs -0.193 season)
▲Offense form0.050 last 3 vs -0.021 season (+0.071)
▲Defense form-0.010 last 3 vs 0.087 season (-0.097)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJohn Alan Richter — 1161 yd, 12 TD
RushingConnor Walendzak — 233 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingBryson Hammer — 286 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKeldric Luster — 438 yd, 3 TD
RushingTJ Horton — 211 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingDonovan Hamilton — 150 yd, 1 TD