Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET· Nippert Stadium· Texas Tech -10.5 · O/U 56.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 1,037 mi / 0 miForecast: 66°F · wind 3 mph · Clear
Market context
Texas Tech -10.5 · O/U 56.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Texas Tech as road favorite
2026 overall: 3-3 ATS (6 games) · 4-2 O/U (6 games)
2026 as road favorite: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 8-6 ATS (14 games) · 4-10 O/U (14 games)
Cincinnati as home underdog
2026 overall: 3-3 ATS (6 games) · 4-2 O/U (6 games)
2026 as home underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 0-3 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 4-4-1 ATS (9 games) · 2-7 O/U (9 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalCincinnati · 6 of 9
422.3
Yards / game
460.0
2.76
Points / drive
2.85
4.0
TDs / game
4.8
42.3
3rd-down %
49.4
56.0
RZ TD %
84.0
0.5
Turnover margin
0.8
2.8
Sacks / game
2.3
6.0
TFL / game
5.8
16.3
Havoc / game
13.3
43.4 / 56.6
Pass / Rush split
40.8 / 59.2
2026 · Situational matchup
When Texas Tech has the ball
Texas Tech's early-down offense ranks 58th of 138. Cincinnati's early-down defense ranks 91st of 138.
Texas Tech's passing-down offense ranks 38th of 138. Cincinnati's passing-down defense ranks 110th of 138.
Texas Tech's third-down offense ranks 60th of 138. Cincinnati's third-down defense ranks 131st of 138.
Texas Tech's red-zone offense ranks 117th of 138. Cincinnati's red-zone defense ranks 45th of 138.
When Cincinnati has the ball
Cincinnati's early-down offense ranks 43rd of 138. Texas Tech's early-down defense ranks 31st of 138.
Cincinnati's passing-down offense ranks 20th of 138. Texas Tech's passing-down defense ranks 62nd of 138.
Cincinnati's third-down offense ranks 1st of 138. Texas Tech's third-down defense ranks 47th of 138.
Cincinnati's red-zone offense ranks 15th of 138. Texas Tech's red-zone defense ranks 20th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.007 last 3 vs 0.044 season (-0.051)
▲Defense form-0.308 last 3 vs -0.161 season (-0.147)
Offense formabout the same(0.116 last 3 vs 0.166 season)
▼Defense form0.172 last 3 vs 0.082 season (+0.090)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingWill Hammond — 1334 yd, 6 TD
RushingJ'Koby Williams — 538 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingKenny Johnson — 418 yd, 1 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJC French IV — 1338 yd, 9 TD
RushingCole Tabb — 448 yd, 8 TD
ReceivingJV Gibson — 342 yd, 4 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Texas Tech offense
58thof 1380.044282 plays
vs
Cincinnati defense · allowed
91stof 1380.025Texas Tech defense · allowed
31stof 138-0.099vs
Cincinnati offense
43rdof 1380.073270 plays
Passing downs
Texas Tech offense
38thof 1380.182120 plays
vs
Cincinnati defense · allowed
110thof 1380.140144 plays
Texas Tech defense · allowed
62ndof 138-0.034163 plays
vs
Cincinnati offense
20thof 1380.243130 plays
Third down
Texas Tech offense
60thof 1380.12271 plays
vs
Cincinnati defense · allowed
131stof 1380.32181 plays
Texas Tech defense · allowed
47thof 138-0.06191 plays
vs
Cincinnati offense
1stof 1380.65077 plays
Red zone
Texas Tech offense
117thof 138-0.19365 plays
vs
Cincinnati defense · allowed
45thof 138-0.15971 plays
Texas Tech defense · allowed
20thof 138-0.25239 plays · small sample
vs
Cincinnati offense
15thof 1380.27068 plays
Field advancement
Texas Tech offense
58thof 13850.5%vs
Cincinnati defense · allowed
120thof 13851.5%Texas Tech defense · allowed
35thof 13837.2%vs
Cincinnati offense
26thof 13855.5%Away
Home
Texas Tech Offense vs Cincinnati DefenseTexas Tech · 9 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.13#44
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#106-0.12
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.039#59
349 plays
EPA/Play
#1160.092
allowed · 374 plays
0.001#73
159 plays
EPA/Pass
#870.039
allowed · 190 plays
0.070#51
190 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#1280.148
allowed · 184 plays
51.9%#15
349 plays
Success Rate
#11248.7%
allowed · 374 plays
54.1%#9
Pass Success Rate
#9645.0%
allowed
50.0%#47
Rush Success Rate
#11850.2%
allowed
50.5%#58
Available Yards %
#12051.5%
allowed
66.9#10
Net Field Position
#376.0
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
0.044#58
282 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#910.025
allowed
7.2#89
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#617.3
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Texas Tech Defense vs Cincinnati OffenseTexas Tech · 6 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.34#9
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#470.12
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.141#19
allowed · 336 plays
EPA/Play
#160.181
350 plays
-0.123#36
allowed · 193 plays
EPA/Pass
#140.241
146 plays
-0.165#13
allowed · 143 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#240.138
204 plays
41.4%#25
allowed · 336 plays
Success Rate
#3549.7%
350 plays
42.5%#68
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#3250.0%
39.0%#6
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#5649.5%
37.2%#35
allowed
Available Yards %
#2655.5%
74.9#8
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#6670.2
-0.099#31
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#430.073
270 plays
7.1#77
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#456.6
2026 · Situational EPAEven · 3-3-0
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
0.015
354 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.187
353 plays
-0.138
343 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
0.084
383 plays
-0.193
65 plays
Red Zone · Off
0.270
68 plays
-0.252
39 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
-0.159
71 plays
0.122
71 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.650
77 plays
-0.061
91 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.321
81 plays