Tue, Oct 6, 8:00 PM ET· Veterans Memorial Stadium· Troy -10 · O/U 49.5
Rest 10d / 10dTravel 202 mi / 0 miForecast: 70°F · wind 8 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Troy -10 · O/U 49.5
opened Troy -9.5, now Troy -10
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Southern Miss as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Since 2020: 11-16 ATS (27 games) · 13-14 O/U (27 games)
Troy as home favorite
2026 overall: 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 0-4 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 12-15 ATS (27 games) · 12-15 O/U (27 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalSouthern Miss · 5 of 9
391.5
Yards / game
371.8
1.82
Points / drive
1.67
3.3
TDs / game
2.5
33.3
3rd-down %
33.9
76.9
RZ TD %
55.6
0.5
Turnover margin
-0.3
2.0
Sacks / game
2.3
5.3
TFL / game
7.0
11.5
Havoc / game
13.5
49.6 / 50.4
Pass / Rush split
46.9 / 53.1
2026 · Situational matchup
When Southern Miss has the ball
Southern Miss's early-down offense ranks 70th of 138. Troy's early-down defense ranks 40th of 138.
Southern Miss's passing-down offense ranks 95th of 138. Troy's passing-down defense ranks 25th of 138.
Southern Miss's third-down offense ranks 108th of 138. Troy's third-down defense ranks 61st of 138.
Southern Miss's red-zone offense ranks 13th of 138. Troy's red-zone defense ranks 105th of 138.
When Troy has the ball
Troy's early-down offense ranks 82nd of 138. Southern Miss's early-down defense ranks 51st of 138.
Troy's passing-down offense ranks 101st of 138. Southern Miss's passing-down defense ranks 86th of 138.
Troy's third-down offense ranks 113th of 138. Southern Miss's third-down defense ranks 109th of 138.
Troy's red-zone offense ranks 72nd of 138. Southern Miss's red-zone defense ranks 22nd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.151 last 3 vs -0.048 season (-0.103)
▼Defense form0.116 last 3 vs 0.009 season (+0.107)
Offense formabout the same(-0.081 last 3 vs -0.067 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.112 last 3 vs -0.090 season)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLandry Lyddy — 508 yd, 4 TD
RushingSteven Robinson — 319 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingMario Sanders — 302 yd, 3 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingGoose Crowder — 822 yd, 7 TD
RushingGavin Griffin — 259 yd, 0 TD
ReceivingTK Keyes — 270 yd, 3 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Southern Miss offense
70thof 1380.007161 plays
vs
Troy defense · allowed
40thof 138-0.084Southern Miss defense · allowed
51stof 138-0.073vs
Troy offense
82ndof 138-0.017218 plays
Passing downs
Southern Miss offense
95thof 138-0.06290 plays
vs
Troy defense · allowed
25thof 138-0.19385 plays
Southern Miss defense · allowed
86thof 1380.031107 plays
vs
Troy offense
101stof 138-0.106100 plays
Third down
Southern Miss offense
108thof 138-0.14654 plays · small sample
vs
Troy defense · allowed
61stof 138-0.02850 plays · small sample
Southern Miss defense · allowed
109thof 1380.18559 plays · small sample
vs
Troy offense
113thof 138-0.16059 plays · small sample
Red zone
Southern Miss offense
13thof 1380.32639 plays · small sample
vs
Troy defense · allowed
105thof 1380.12128 plays · small sample
Southern Miss defense · allowed
22ndof 138-0.30841 plays · small sample
vs
Troy offense
72ndof 1380.00924 plays · small sample
Field advancement
Southern Miss offense
111thof 13840.9%vs
Troy defense · allowed
48thof 13837.5%Southern Miss defense · allowed
87thof 13845.8%vs
Troy offense
115thof 13840.5%Away
Home
Southern Miss Offense vs Troy DefenseTroy · 11 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.13#101
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#410.10
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.019#85
203 plays
EPA/Play
#40-0.084
allowed · 236 plays
-0.021#74
109 plays
EPA/Pass
#44-0.116
allowed · 118 plays
-0.016#92
94 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#51-0.053
allowed · 118 plays
44.8%#97
203 plays
Success Rate
#2240.3%
allowed · 236 plays
41.3%#102
Pass Success Rate
#3238.1%
allowed
48.9%#62
Rush Success Rate
#3542.4%
allowed
40.9%#111
Available Yards %
#4837.5%
allowed
75.0#134
Net Field Position
#12268.3
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
0.007#70
161 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#40-0.084
allowed
7.0#78
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#138.3
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Southern Miss Defense vs Troy OffenseSouthern Miss · 8 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.11#106
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#123-0.26
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.035#102
allowed · 205 plays
EPA/Play
#103-0.069
286 plays
-0.051#71
allowed · 89 plays
EPA/Pass
#116-0.165
134 plays
0.101#113
allowed · 116 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#800.016
152 plays
46.3%#88
allowed · 205 plays
Success Rate
#12841.3%
286 plays
36.9%#23
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#12835.8%
48.9%#98
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#9646.1%
45.8%#87
allowed
Available Yards %
#11540.5%
71.3#74
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#12773.8
-0.073#51
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#82-0.017
218 plays
6.9#94
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#606.8
2026 · Situational EPASouthern Miss · 4 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
-0.016
210 plays
Non-garbage · Off
-0.069
286 plays
0.015
222 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
-0.084
236 plays
0.326
39 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
0.009
24 plays · small sample
-0.308
41 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
0.121
28 plays · small sample
-0.146
54 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Off
-0.160
59 plays · small sample
0.185
59 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
-0.028
50 plays · small sample