Sat, Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET· Mackay Stadium· Elevation 4,615 ft· Nevada -6 · O/U 46.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 190 mi / 0 miForecast: 54°F · wind 6 mph · Clear
Market context
Nevada -6 · O/U 46.5
opened Nevada -5.5, now Nevada -6 · total opened 46, now 46.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
San José State as road underdog
2026 overall: 4-3 ATS (7 games) · 1-6 O/U (7 games)
2026 as road underdog: 3-0 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 15-6 ATS (21 games) · 7-14 O/U (21 games)
Nevada as home favorite
2026 overall: 3-2-1 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
2026 as home favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 8-9 ATS (17 games) · 9-8 O/U (17 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalSan José State · 5 of 9
384.7
Yards / game
364.7
1.59
Points / drive
2.12
2.3
TDs / game
3.0
34.4
3rd-down %
37.2
52.4
RZ TD %
57.1
0.0
Turnover margin
-1.3
3.9
Sacks / game
2.2
6.7
TFL / game
4.8
15.3
Havoc / game
11.7
50.1 / 49.9
Pass / Rush split
43.3 / 56.7
2026 · Situational matchup
When San José State has the ball
San José State's early-down offense ranks 110th of 138. Nevada's early-down defense ranks 33rd of 138.
San José State's passing-down offense ranks 121st of 138. Nevada's passing-down defense ranks 54th of 138.
San José State's third-down offense ranks 83rd of 138. Nevada's third-down defense ranks 40th of 138.
San José State's red-zone offense ranks 87th of 138. Nevada's red-zone defense ranks 125th of 138.
When Nevada has the ball
Nevada's early-down offense ranks 97th of 138. San José State's early-down defense ranks 53rd of 138.
Nevada's passing-down offense ranks 88th of 138. San José State's passing-down defense ranks 42nd of 138.
Nevada's third-down offense ranks 45th of 138. San José State's third-down defense ranks 25th of 138.
Nevada's red-zone offense ranks 43rd of 138. San José State's red-zone defense ranks 53rd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.001 last 3 vs -0.086 season (+0.086)
Defense formabout the same(-0.083 last 3 vs -0.044 season)
Offense formabout the same(0.024 last 3 vs -0.010 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.085 last 3 vs -0.078 season)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLuke Weaver — 1529 yd, 11 TD
RushingJabari Bates — 556 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingCarson Clark — 509 yd, 5 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingCarter Jones — 654 yd, 3 TD
RushingDominic Kelley — 500 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingGary Givens III — 260 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
San José State offense
110thof 138-0.080333 plays
vs
Nevada defense · allowed
33rdof 138-0.086San José State defense · allowed
53rdof 138-0.050vs
Nevada offense
97thof 138-0.055275 plays
Passing downs
San José State offense
121stof 138-0.143167 plays
vs
Nevada defense · allowed
54thof 138-0.051147 plays
San José State defense · allowed
42ndof 138-0.081181 plays
vs
Nevada offense
88thof 138-0.024139 plays
Third down
San José State offense
83rdof 1380.02095 plays
vs
Nevada defense · allowed
40thof 138-0.09290 plays
San José State defense · allowed
25thof 138-0.162104 plays
vs
Nevada offense
45thof 1380.16576 plays
Red zone
San José State offense
87thof 138-0.05558 plays · small sample
vs
Nevada defense · allowed
125thof 1380.26147 plays · small sample
San José State defense · allowed
53rdof 138-0.11570 plays
vs
Nevada offense
43rdof 1380.08049 plays · small sample
Field advancement
San José State offense
108thof 13842.8%vs
Nevada defense · allowed
48thof 13840.0%San José State defense · allowed
76thof 13844.0%vs
Nevada offense
86thof 13845.8%Away
Home
San José State Offense vs Nevada DefenseNevada · 10 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.33#127
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#580.05
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.071#107
433 plays
EPA/Play
#51-0.046
allowed · 372 plays
-0.055#95
213 plays
EPA/Pass
#43-0.096
allowed · 141 plays
-0.086#118
220 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#60-0.015
allowed · 231 plays
43.9%#111
433 plays
Success Rate
#4343.0%
allowed · 372 plays
43.7%#85
Pass Success Rate
#3440.0%
allowed
44.1%#117
Rush Success Rate
#7147.0%
allowed
42.8%#108
Available Yards %
#4840.0%
allowed
72.5#112
Net Field Position
#11868.9
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
-0.080#110
333 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#33-0.086
allowed
7.1#82
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#527.4
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
San José State Defense vs Nevada OffenseSan José State · 8 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.11#41
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#96-0.12
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.055#45
allowed · 472 plays
EPA/Play
#91-0.030
360 plays
-0.090#44
allowed · 228 plays
EPA/Pass
#132-0.272
165 plays
-0.023#58
allowed · 244 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#120.174
195 plays
43.9%#49
allowed · 472 plays
Success Rate
#11243.6%
360 plays
41.8%#59
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#13234.5%
46.9%#68
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#3451.3%
44.0%#76
allowed
Available Yards %
#8645.8%
69.9#104
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#7070.4
-0.050#53
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#97-0.055
275 plays
7.1#76
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#917.2
2026 · Situational EPAEven · 3-3-0
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
-0.071
433 plays
Non-garbage · Off
-0.030
360 plays
-0.064
470 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
-0.046
372 plays
-0.055
58 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
0.080
49 plays · small sample
-0.115
70 plays
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
0.261
47 plays · small sample
0.020
95 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.165
76 plays
-0.162
104 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
-0.092
90 plays