Tue, Oct 27, 8:00 PM ET· Plaster Stadium· Missouri State -6.5 · O/U 51.5
Rest 6d / 7dTravel 466 mi / 0 miForecast: 63°F · wind 8 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Missouri State -6.5 · O/U 51.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Sam Houston as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-4 ATS (7 games) · 3-4 O/U (7 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 1-5 ATS (6 games) · 4-2 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 7-12 ATS (19 games) · 8-11 O/U (19 games)
Missouri State as home favorite
2026 overall: 3-4 ATS (7 games) · 3-4 O/U (7 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 4-1 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalSam Houston · 5 of 9
328.3
Yards / game
367.6
1.36
Points / drive
2.30
2.4
TDs / game
2.7
35.4
3rd-down %
36.5
56.3
RZ TD %
53.8
0.1
Turnover margin
-0.3
1.7
Sacks / game
1.3
5.4
TFL / game
3.9
13.9
Havoc / game
10.4
54.8 / 45.2
Pass / Rush split
49.2 / 50.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Sam Houston has the ball
Sam Houston's early-down offense ranks 130th of 138. Missouri State's early-down defense ranks 103rd of 138.
Sam Houston's passing-down offense ranks 120th of 138. Missouri State's passing-down defense ranks 102nd of 138.
Sam Houston's third-down offense ranks 108th of 138. Missouri State's third-down defense ranks 114th of 138.
Sam Houston's red-zone offense ranks 110th of 138. Missouri State's red-zone defense ranks 109th of 138.
When Missouri State has the ball
Missouri State's early-down offense ranks 70th of 138. Sam Houston's early-down defense ranks 63rd of 138.
Missouri State's passing-down offense ranks 76th of 138. Sam Houston's passing-down defense ranks 48th of 138.
Missouri State's third-down offense ranks 57th of 138. Sam Houston's third-down defense ranks 21st of 138.
Missouri State's red-zone offense ranks 111th of 138. Sam Houston's red-zone defense ranks 57th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.393 last 3 vs -0.210 season (-0.183)
▼Defense form0.015 last 3 vs -0.087 season (+0.102)
▲Offense form0.044 last 3 vs -0.007 season (+0.051)
▼Defense form0.134 last 3 vs 0.080 season (+0.055)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLandyn Locke — 1653 yd, 12 TD
RushingAlton McCaskill — 220 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingTim Burns Jr. — 329 yd, 3 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingHenry Belin IV — 887 yd, 6 TD
RushingRamone Green Jr. — 246 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingIsaiah Myers — 796 yd, 7 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Sam Houston offense
130thof 138-0.150288 plays
vs
Missouri State defense · allowed
103rdof 1380.045Sam Houston defense · allowed
63rdof 138-0.021vs
Missouri State offense
70thof 1380.020286 plays
Passing downs
Sam Houston offense
120thof 138-0.141164 plays
vs
Missouri State defense · allowed
102ndof 1380.111151 plays
Sam Houston defense · allowed
48thof 138-0.065159 plays
vs
Missouri State offense
76thof 1380.007146 plays
Third down
Sam Houston offense
108thof 138-0.126102 plays
vs
Missouri State defense · allowed
114thof 1380.19693 plays
Sam Houston defense · allowed
21stof 138-0.19197 plays
vs
Missouri State offense
57thof 1380.12689 plays
Red zone
Sam Houston offense
110thof 138-0.13044 plays · small sample
vs
Missouri State defense · allowed
109thof 1380.11899 plays
Sam Houston defense · allowed
57thof 138-0.10147 plays · small sample
vs
Missouri State offense
111thof 138-0.13072 plays
Field advancement
Sam Houston offense
134thof 13835.0%vs
Missouri State defense · allowed
135thof 13857.8%Sam Houston defense · allowed
39thof 13838.0%vs
Missouri State offense
69thof 13848.7%Away
Home
Sam Houston Offense vs Missouri State DefenseMissouri State · 6 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.35#130
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#131-0.36
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.219#136
380 plays
EPA/Play
#1210.113
allowed · 423 plays
-0.169#118
220 plays
EPA/Pass
#1120.133
allowed · 197 plays
-0.287#137
160 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#1140.095
allowed · 226 plays
39.7%#135
380 plays
Success Rate
#13451.8%
allowed · 423 plays
41.4%#107
Pass Success Rate
#12850.7%
allowed
37.5%#137
Rush Success Rate
#13553.5%
allowed
35.0%#134
Available Yards %
#13557.8%
allowed
71.7#95
Net Field Position
#13367.1
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
-0.150#130
288 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#1030.045
allowed
7.3#96
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#1136.6
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Sam Houston Defense vs Missouri State OffenseSam Houston · 8 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.04#60
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#81-0.03
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.070#39
allowed · 415 plays
EPA/Play
#610.037
372 plays
-0.361#2
allowed · 174 plays
EPA/Pass
#580.055
197 plays
0.140#126
allowed · 241 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#690.016
175 plays
45.1%#63
allowed · 415 plays
Success Rate
#6247.3%
372 plays
35.7%#4
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#8443.7%
51.6%#126
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#3051.4%
38.0%#39
allowed
Available Yards %
#6948.7%
70.8#85
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#12473.2
-0.021#63
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#700.020
286 plays
7.0#81
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#847.2
2026 · Situational EPASam Houston · 4 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
-0.211
378 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.037
377 plays
-0.079
414 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
0.122
435 plays
-0.130
44 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
-0.130
72 plays
-0.101
47 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
0.118
99 plays
-0.126
102 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.126
89 plays
-0.191
97 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.196
93 plays