Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM ET· Williams Stadium· Liberty -13.5 · O/U 52
Rest 12d / 6dTravel 1,042 mi / 0 miForecast: 65°F · wind 5 mph · Clear
Market context
Liberty -13.5 · O/U 52
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Sam Houston as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 1-5 ATS (6 games) · 4-2 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 7-11 ATS (18 games) · 8-10 O/U (18 games)
Liberty as home favorite
2026 overall: 3-2 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 16-18 ATS (34 games) · 18-16 O/U (34 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalSam Houston · 5 of 9
408.0
Yards / game
416.8
1.84
Points / drive
2.44
3.8
TDs / game
3.6
43.3
3rd-down %
43.9
72.7
RZ TD %
52.4
0.5
Turnover margin
0.6
2.3
Sacks / game
2.0
6.3
TFL / game
6.0
16.3
Havoc / game
13.8
54.7 / 45.3
Pass / Rush split
34.8 / 65.2
2026 · Situational matchup
When Sam Houston has the ball
Sam Houston's early-down offense ranks 99th of 138. Liberty's early-down defense ranks 11th of 138.
Sam Houston's passing-down offense ranks 64th of 138. Liberty's passing-down defense ranks 24th of 138.
Sam Houston's third-down offense ranks 65th of 138. Liberty's third-down defense ranks 47th of 138.
Sam Houston's red-zone offense ranks 55th of 138. Liberty's red-zone defense ranks 25th of 138.
When Liberty has the ball
Liberty's early-down offense ranks 47th of 138. Sam Houston's early-down defense ranks 38th of 138.
Liberty's passing-down offense ranks 98th of 138. Sam Houston's passing-down defense ranks 43rd of 138.
Liberty's third-down offense ranks 69th of 138. Sam Houston's third-down defense ranks 17th of 138.
Liberty's red-zone offense ranks 119th of 138. Sam Houston's red-zone defense ranks 6th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.089 last 3 vs -0.073 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.210 last 3 vs -0.163 season)
▲Offense form0.177 last 3 vs 0.042 season (+0.135)
Defense formabout the same(-0.236 last 3 vs -0.190 season)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLandyn Locke — 1168 yd, 11 TD
RushingAlton McCaskill — 165 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingChris Reed — 220 yd, 3 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingDeshawn Purdie — 936 yd, 7 TD
RushingKam Davis — 457 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingMakai Jackson — 469 yd, 5 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Sam Houston offense
99thof 138-0.058174 plays
vs
Liberty defense · allowed
11thof 138-0.197Sam Houston defense · allowed
38thof 138-0.086vs
Liberty offense
47thof 1380.065233 plays
Passing downs
Sam Houston offense
64thof 1380.05791 plays
vs
Liberty defense · allowed
24thof 138-0.195122 plays
Sam Houston defense · allowed
43rdof 138-0.10795 plays
vs
Liberty offense
98thof 138-0.076103 plays
Third down
Sam Houston offense
65thof 1380.11862 plays
vs
Liberty defense · allowed
47thof 138-0.10060 plays
Sam Houston defense · allowed
17thof 138-0.27356 plays · small sample
vs
Liberty offense
69thof 1380.08566 plays
Red zone
Sam Houston offense
55thof 1380.10829 plays · small sample
vs
Liberty defense · allowed
25thof 138-0.29628 plays · small sample
Sam Houston defense · allowed
6thof 138-0.46822 plays · small sample
vs
Liberty offense
119thof 138-0.28756 plays · small sample
Field advancement
Sam Houston offense
108thof 13841.5%vs
Liberty defense · allowed
34thof 13835.6%Sam Houston defense · allowed
36thof 13836.1%vs
Liberty offense
53rdof 13852.8%Away
Home
Sam Houston Offense vs Liberty DefenseLiberty · 11 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.12#95
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#170.25
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.092#113
226 plays
EPA/Play
#13-0.183
allowed · 267 plays
-0.023#76
136 plays
EPA/Pass
#13-0.277
allowed · 132 plays
-0.197#131
90 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#43-0.092
allowed · 135 plays
45.6%#87
226 plays
Success Rate
#637.1%
allowed · 267 plays
47.1%#59
Pass Success Rate
#2136.7%
allowed
43.3%#118
Rush Success Rate
#3041.3%
allowed
41.5%#108
Available Yards %
#3435.6%
allowed
71.8#91
Net Field Position
#4073.2
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
-0.058#99
174 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#11-0.197
allowed
7.0#72
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#19.1
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Sam Houston Defense vs Liberty OffenseSam Houston · 6 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.06#56
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#74-0.02
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.105#34
allowed · 229 plays
EPA/Play
#650.028
298 plays
-0.487#3
allowed · 105 plays
EPA/Pass
#230.207
107 plays
0.218#133
allowed · 124 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#107-0.073
191 plays
43.7%#58
allowed · 229 plays
Success Rate
#3849.7%
298 plays
35.1%#11
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#4448.6%
49.0%#101
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#4750.3%
36.1%#36
allowed
Available Yards %
#5352.8%
71.3#74
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#1365.6
-0.086#38
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#470.065
233 plays
7.4#59
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#406.5
2026 · Situational EPASam Houston · 4 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
-0.077
224 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.028
298 plays
-0.121
228 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
-0.183
267 plays
0.108
29 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
-0.287
56 plays · small sample
-0.468
22 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
-0.296
28 plays · small sample
0.118
62 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.085
66 plays
-0.273
56 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
-0.100
60 plays