Fourth Down Data
Baylor3-1 · Big 12@Arizona State2-1 · Big 12
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Sat, Oct 3, 10:30 PM ET· Mountain America Stadium· Arizona State -4 · O/U 49
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 14dTravel 872 mi / 0 miForecast: 86°F · wind 12 mph · Clear
Market context
Arizona State -4 · O/U 49
total opened 50.5, now 49
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Baylor as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 14-11 ATS (25 games) · 13-12 O/U (25 games)
Arizona State as home favorite
2026 overall: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 2-0 O/U (2 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-3-1 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 13-9-1 ATS (23 games) · 11-12 O/U (23 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalBaylor · 7 of 9
435.8
Yards / game
426.0
2.38
Points / drive
2.32
3.5
TDs / game
4.7
39.4
3rd-down %
30.8
47.1
RZ TD %
75.0
-0.3
Turnover margin
-0.3
3.8
Sacks / game
1.7
9.0
TFL / game
4.3
20.0
Havoc / game
11.7
49.2 / 50.8
Pass / Rush split
46.5 / 53.5
2026 · Situational matchup
When Baylor has the ball
Baylor's early-down offense ranks 79th of 138. Arizona State's early-down defense ranks 11th of 138.
Baylor's passing-down offense ranks 58th of 138. Arizona State's passing-down defense ranks 11th of 138.
Baylor's third-down offense ranks 102nd of 138. Arizona State's third-down defense ranks 76th of 138.
Baylor's red-zone offense ranks 122nd of 138. Arizona State's red-zone defense ranks 108th of 138.
When Arizona State has the ball
Arizona State's early-down offense ranks 119th of 138. Baylor's early-down defense ranks 25th of 138.
Arizona State's passing-down offense ranks 104th of 138. Baylor's passing-down defense ranks 51st of 138.
Arizona State's third-down offense ranks 74th of 138. Baylor's third-down defense ranks 97th of 138.
Arizona State's red-zone offense ranks 53rd of 138. Baylor's red-zone defense ranks 41st of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.013 last 3 vs -0.026 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.211 last 3 vs -0.171 season)
Season to date · 3 games
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingNate Bennett — 567 yd, 6 TD
RushingDawson Pendergrass — 287 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingGavin Freeman — 364 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingCutter Boley — 736 yd, 9 TD
RushingKyson Brown — 227 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingReed Harris — 374 yd, 5 TD