Fourth Down Data
Michigan State2-5 · Big Ten@#9UCLA6-0 · Big Ten
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Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET· Rose Bowl· UCLA -15 · O/U 43.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 1,902 mi / 0 miForecast: 73°F · wind 4 mph · Clear
Market context
UCLA -15 · O/U 43.5
opened UCLA -14, now UCLA -15 · total opened 45.5, now 43.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Michigan State as road underdog
2026 overall: 4-3 ATS (7 games) · 2-5 O/U (7 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 5-0 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 17-10-1 ATS (28 games) · 12-16 O/U (28 games)
UCLA as home favorite
2026 overall: 6-0 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
2026 as home favorite: 3-0 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 0-3 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 10-15 ATS (25 games) · 10-15 O/U (25 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalUCLA · 9 of 9
310.7
Yards / game
445.8
2.22
Points / drive
2.54
2.4
TDs / game
4.3
40.2
3rd-down %
48.8
59.1
RZ TD %
60.7
-0.7
Turnover margin
1.7
1.7
Sacks / game
2.2
4.6
TFL / game
5.3
10.6
Havoc / game
14.3
43.9 / 56.1
Pass / Rush split
39.1 / 60.9
2026 · Situational matchup
When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State's early-down offense ranks 92nd of 138. UCLA's early-down defense ranks 15th of 138.
Michigan State's passing-down offense ranks 90th of 138. UCLA's passing-down defense ranks 6th of 138.
Michigan State's third-down offense ranks 104th of 138. UCLA's third-down defense ranks 8th of 138.
Michigan State's red-zone offense ranks 86th of 138. UCLA's red-zone defense ranks 31st of 138.
When UCLA has the ball
UCLA's early-down offense ranks 36th of 138. Michigan State's early-down defense ranks 94th of 138.
UCLA's passing-down offense ranks 37th of 138. Michigan State's passing-down defense ranks 106th of 138.
UCLA's third-down offense ranks 50th of 138. Michigan State's third-down defense ranks 106th of 138.
UCLA's red-zone offense ranks 80th of 138. Michigan State's red-zone defense ranks 82nd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.088 last 3 vs -0.076 season)
Defense formabout the same(0.050 last 3 vs 0.051 season)
▼Offense form-0.121 last 3 vs 0.083 season (-0.205)
▲Defense form-0.410 last 3 vs -0.181 season (-0.229)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAlessio Milivojevic — 1263 yd, 7 TD
RushingJaziun Patterson — 327 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingJayden Savoury — 261 yd, 0 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingNico Iamaleava — 982 yd, 4 TD
RushingWayne Knight — 571 yd, 11 TD
ReceivingSemaj Morgan — 313 yd, 2 TD