Fourth Down Data
Illinois2-3 · Big Ten@Michigan State2-3 · Big Ten
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Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET· Spartan Stadium· Illinois -3.5 · O/U 51
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 266 mi / 0 miForecast: 64°F · wind 11 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Illinois -3.5 · O/U 51
total opened 51.5, now 51
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Illinois as road favorite
2026 overall: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 4-1 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 6-1 ATS (7 games) · 5-2 O/U (7 games)
Michigan State as home underdog
2026 overall: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 1-4 O/U (5 games)
2026 as home underdog: 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 8-12 ATS (20 games) · 11-8 O/U (19 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalIllinois · 6 of 9
404.8
Yards / game
305.6
2.93
Points / drive
1.91
3.4
TDs / game
1.8
45.5
3rd-down %
40.0
60.0
RZ TD %
53.3
-0.2
Turnover margin
-0.8
0.6
Sacks / game
1.4
3.8
TFL / game
4.2
9.0
Havoc / game
9.6
51.8 / 48.2
Pass / Rush split
41.4 / 58.6
2026 · Situational matchup
When Illinois has the ball
Illinois's early-down offense ranks 13th of 138. Michigan State's early-down defense ranks 90th of 138.
Illinois's passing-down offense ranks 18th of 138. Michigan State's passing-down defense ranks 97th of 138.
Illinois's third-down offense ranks 97th of 138. Michigan State's third-down defense ranks 103rd of 138.
Illinois's red-zone offense ranks 126th of 138. Michigan State's red-zone defense ranks 108th of 138.
When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State's early-down offense ranks 122nd of 138. Illinois's early-down defense ranks 132nd of 138.
Michigan State's passing-down offense ranks 124th of 138. Illinois's passing-down defense ranks 108th of 138.
Michigan State's third-down offense ranks 70th of 138. Illinois's third-down defense ranks 124th of 138.
Michigan State's red-zone offense ranks 109th of 138. Illinois's red-zone defense ranks 93rd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form0.034 last 3 vs 0.106 season (-0.072)
Defense formabout the same(0.166 last 3 vs 0.172 season)
▼Offense form-0.223 last 3 vs -0.111 season (-0.112)
Defense formabout the same(0.070 last 3 vs 0.058 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKatin Houser — 1246 yd, 11 TD
RushingAidan Laughery — 321 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingCollin Dixon — 546 yd, 8 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAlessio Milivojevic — 851 yd, 3 TD
RushingCam Edwards — 304 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingRodney Bullard Jr. — 206 yd, 1 TD