Key findingWhere rest and travel matter for game outcomes, the market generally prices it in. Straight-up win rates swing hard by bucket (home teams win ~62%, coast-to-coast road teams ~40%) — but against the spread, every bucket sits near 50%. The patterns below are descriptive of what's happened, not predictive of what to bet on.

How games break down by rest advantage (a team's rest vs its opponent's) and travel distance. Straight-up, against-the-spread, and Over/Under all span 2017–2025. Every bar's sample size is on hover.