The Fourth Down Report
How college football plays its fourth downs — go, punt, or kick — across every FBS game since 2017. Frequencies, conversion rates, and the expected-points breakeven behind each call. Descriptive, never a verdict. We don't make predictions. We make them possible.
Frequency & aggression
What teams choose — punt, kick, or go for it
Rates exclude late, win-probability-governed situations we don’t grade (see “not scored,” below).
Go-for-it rate by season
Share of scored fourth-down decisions that went for it, by season
Go-for-it rate by distance
All seasons
Go-for-it rate by field zone
All seasons · spot = yards to opponent goal
Success rate
How often the chosen play works — all attempts, scored or not
Go conversion by distance
All go attempts (rush or pass) that picked up the line to gain
Go conversion by field zone
All go attempts, by field zone
Field-goal make rate by zone
Field-goal makes by field zone — closer is a shorter kick
Decision outcomes
Expected points behind each call — and the conversion rate that breaks even
Each cell shows the historically higher-expected-points call — a confident edge, a lean, or a toss-up where two options are about even — and the conversion rate at which going for it breaks even against the next-best option. Pick a cell for the full expected-points picture. This describes what has paid off on average — it is not advice for any single play.
| Opp. red zone inside opp 20 | Opp. territory opp 21–50 | Own territory own 21–49 | Own deep backed up, own ≤20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th & 1 | ||||
| 4th & 2 | ||||
| 4th & 3 | ||||
| 4th & 4–6 | ||||
| 4th & 7–10 | ||||
| 4th & 11+ |
GoField goalPunt“be” = breakeven conversion rate
The colored bar reads confidence by the gap between the top two options: solid = clear edge, faded = lean, amber = toss-up (~even, both calls shown).
Select a cell to see the expected-points breakdown.
Run vs pass
How run and pass have converted on go-for-it attempts
On 4th-down go attempts, by yards to go. Short yardage has historically favored the run; from 2 yards out the pass has converted better, and the gap widens with distance. Descriptive — how each has converted, 2017–2025.
Conversion: run vs pass by distance
Go conversion rate by yards to go — run vs pass
How often go attempts are runs
Run as a share of go attempts, by yards to go
By the numbers
Conversion rate and attempts behind each point
| Dist | Run (n) | Pass (n) |
|---|
Situation explorer
Here’s what the data shows for situations like this (2017–2025)
Pick a distance and field position. This is a historical lookup of what has paid off on average — the “optimal” is the higher-expected-points call in the data for situations like this, not a recommendation for your game.
Distance
Yards to go on 4th down
Field position
Click the field — left is your goal line, right is the opponent’s
4th & 4 · Opp 40
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Team leaderboard
By the offense facing the fourth down
0 teams · min 200 fourth downs
| Team | Go rate ▼ | Convert | Run % | Quality | 4th downs |
|---|
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Go rate and quality are computed on scored decisions only — late, win-probability-governed situations are deliberately not graded. Convert is over all go attempts. Quality is the clear-correct share minus the clear-suboptimal share (expressed in points of share); higher means more decisions matched the higher-expected-points call. Run % is the share of a team’s go attempts that were runs. Expected points are descriptive, not a prediction.
What to try next
Every FBS game since 2017. Decisions graded by expected points; not-scored situations are late, win-probability-governed plays we don’t grade — a deliberate stance, not a gap. We don’t make predictions. We make them possible.